Global declines in coral reef calcium carbonate production under ocean acidification and warming
| Type | : | ACL |
|---|---|---|
| Nature | : | Production scientifique |
| Au bénéfice du Laboratoire | : | Oui |
| Statut de publication | : | Publié |
| Année de publication | : | 2021 |
| Auteurs (22) | : | CORNWALL Christopher,e COMEAU Steeve KORNDER N,a PERRY Chris,t VAN HOOIDONK Ruben DECARLO T,m PRATCHETT Morgan,s ANDERSON Kristen,d BROWNE N CARPENTER Robert,c DIAZ-PULIDO Guillermo D’OLIVO J,p DOO Steve,s FIGUEIREDO J FORTUNATO S,a,v KENNEDY Emma LANTZ Coulson,a MCCULLOCH Malcolm,t GONZÁLEZ-RIVERO Manuel SCHOEPF Verena SMITHERS Scott,g LOWE Ryan,j |
| Revue scientifique | : | Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America |
| Volume | : | 118 |
| Fascicule | : | 21 |
| Pages | : | |
| DOI | : | 10.1073/pnas.2015265118 |
| URL | : | https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2015265118 |
| Abstract | : | Ocean warming and acidification threaten the future growth of coral reefs. This is because the calcifying coral reef taxa that construct the calcium carbonate frameworks and cement the reef together are highly sensitive to ocean warming and acidification. However, the global-scale effects of ocean warming and acidification on rates of coral reef net carbonate production remain poorly constrained despite a wealth of studies assessing their effects on the calcification of individual organisms. Here, we present global estimates of projected future changes in coral reef net carbonate production under ocean warming and acidification. We apply a meta-analysis of responses of coral reef taxa calcification and bioerosion rates to predicted changes in coral cover driven by climate change to estimate the net carbonate production rates of 183 reefs worldwide by 2050 and 2100. We forecast mean global reef net carbonate production under representative concentration pathways (RCP) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 will decline by 76, 149, and 156%, respectively, by 2100. While 63% of reefs are projected to continue to accrete by 2100 under RCP2.6, 94% will be eroding by 2050 under RCP8.5, and no reefs will continue to accrete at rates matching projected sea level rise under RCP4.5 or 8.5 by 2100. Projected reduced coral cover due to bleaching events predominately drives these declines rather than the direct physiological impacts of ocean warming and acidification on calcification or bioerosion. Presently degraded reefs were also more sensitive in our analysis. These findings highlight the low likelihood that the world?s coral reefs will maintain their functional roles without near-term stabilization of atmospheric CO2 emissions. |
| Mots-clés | : | - |
| Commentaire | : | doi: 10.1073/pnas.2015265118 |
| Tags | : | - |
| Fichier attaché | : | - |
| Citation | : |
Cornwall CE, Comeau S, Kornder NA, Perry CT, Van Hooidonk R, DeCarlo TM, Pratchett MS, Anderson KD, Browne N, Carpenter RC, Diaz-Pulido G, D’Olivo JP, Doo SS, Figueiredo J, Fortunato SAV, Kennedy E, Lantz CA, McCulloch MT, González-Rivero M, Schoepf V, Smithers SG, Lowe RJ (2021) Global declines in coral reef calcium carbonate production under ocean acidification and warming. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 118 | doi: 10.1073/pnas.2015265118
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